global mythology - shortage of 500,000 knowledge workers

Date: Sunday, November 23, 2008 4:07 PM

<<<<< JOB DESTRUCTION NEWSLETTER No. 1941 -- 11/23/2008 >>>>>

A new idiotorial by Geoff Epstein was published (see below) that's so full of
flaws I can't deal with all of them in one newsletter, so I'll discuss the
stupidest and most annoying one:

The U.S. will have a shortage of more than 500,000 engineers,
scientists and other technically trained workers by 2010.
(Congressional Task Force Study, 2006)

He never referenced the study. I have seen this used so many times in the past
I take it for granted that there is an obscure government study making such
claims. The government studies I have seen all say there are no shortages, so
I was just suspicious enough to spend some time googling to find the study.
Surely a study that declared a shortage of 500,000 STEMS would be easy to
find, right?

NOTE: STEM is an acronym for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics
workers

I found lots of articles, studies, editorials, etc. that uses the same
statistic but not a single one of them has a reference to the "Congressional
Task Force Study". I assumed that I must be overlooking something very obvious
so I contacted Dr. Norman Matloff to see if he knew of a study like that. He
too has seen it many times but didn't know what the source for that statistic
is.

I never found an actual congressional study with that 500,000 number.
Somebody out there, please help Norm and I out! You can go to the search
engines and look for pages with: "500,000" shortage engineers OR knowledge
2010. If you find the study please contact one of us.

I decided to sort through some of those choice nuggets of knowledge to see if
it was possible to figure out the origin of the 500,000 shortage myth.

<> Shortage shouting from Europe <>

You will see lots of articles saying that a study was done that Europe will
have a shortage of 500,000 STEMS by 2010. Sometimes the number is far higher.
I haven't actually read the study because I can't find it, but supposedly a
think tank or government entity somewhere in the EU said this in 2003.

Could this be the origin of the 500,000 number?

http://ec.europa.eu/research/fp6/mariecurie-actions/news/headline14_en.html

27 March 2003 - Europe needs an extra 500,000 researchers if it is
to meet the goal set by EU leaders of boosting R&D spending to 3%
of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to European Research
Commissioner, Philippe Busquin.

Since that 2003 article the 500,000 number continues to be very popular in
European articles that deal with immigration or work issues. Take this for
example:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a.e6P0YDpWOY&refer=uk

The U.K. is trying to reduce the inflow of immigrants after the
arrival of more than 500,000 annually for the past five years.
The record numbers since the Labour government took office 11
years ago have put a strain on schools, police and hospitals.

<> Shortage shouting from Romania <>

Romania doesn't seem like a large enough nation to have big shortages of
STEMS, but guess how many engineers they are short? Answer: 500,000!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/12/05/do0506.xml

We need more engineers, mechanics and bricklayers," Mr Vosganian
said. "We have a labour deficit of 500,000 employees."
05/12/2007

<> Shortage shouting from China <>

China also has a shortage of 500,000 engineers. The way China figures, if
India has 500,000 engineers then China needs that many too.

http://pdf.aigroup.asn.au/events/2008/PIR2008/Paul_Duckett_PIR_May08.pdf

Both of the Asian "super tigers", China and India are projecting
skills shortages. As an example, Shanghai is projecting a shortage
of 500,000 skilled technicians over the next 5 years.
(Schu.com 8 March 2006)

<> Shortage shouting from India <>

A consortium of over 1200 Indian high-tech companies called NASSCOM, and the
consulting firm McKinsey and Co, did a study on 12/05 that claimed India's IT
industry will face a shortfall of around 500,000 skilled workers by 2010. The
claim appears in many places throughout the internet. Here is an example on
the CIO website:

http://www.cio-weblog.com/50226711/nasscom_mckinsey_report_excerpts.php

But the greatest challenge staring the software services exports in
the face is skill shortage. The country will face a shortage of
500,000 knowledge workers by 2010.
December 13, 2005

So, I decided to go to the NASSCOM site to see exactly what they said.

http://www.nasscom.in/Nasscom/templates/LandingPage.aspx?id=28350

Findings of the NASSCOM-McKinsey Report 2005 indicate that, while
more than three million students graduate from Indian colleges
and the nation produces 500,000 engineers annually, only a very
small percentage are directly employable by the industry.

Be sure to read those two again, because they contradict each other!

NASSCOM said that India graduates 500,000 engineers every year but most of
them are not employable. In other words they have diplomas that are pure
trash. So, if India graduates that many engineers, but their diplomas are
dubious, there is an assumption that India has a shortage of 500,000
engineers. Perhaps they came up with that number by reading EU websites that
claimed shortages, and then the Indians figured that if they could produce
500,000 engineers that could fake their way through interviews they could get
jobs in Europe. Of course Europe hasn't been very cooperative with India
because they haven't been able to agree on the Blue Card, which is the
European equivalent to the H-1B visa.

So, India probably then figured that since hundreds of articles in the U.S.
claimed there was a shortage of 500,000 STEMS they could dump their engineers
into the U.S. That didn't quite work out either since Congress hasn't been
able to change H-1B into an unlimited visa.

As I figure it, India has produced 500,000 unemployable STEMS a year since the
NASSCOM study in 2005, so they have over 2 million excess grads that are
unemployable that India wants to dump into the U.S. I hope my quote gets
copied and pasted into hundreds of articles so that it too can become part of
the global mythology. If it happens, remember that the myth started in
November of 2008 when I published this newsletter.

<> Shortage shouting in the U.S. <>

By 2006 the myth of the shortage of 500,000 STEMS had propagated throughout
the entire world. It has been especially popular on college websites, who have
an obvious interest in promoting the myth. This is an example from
2007:

http://www.virginia.edu/uvatoday/newsRelease.php?id=2373

Studies show that the United States will have a shortage of more
than 500,000 engineers and scientists by 2010.

It's important to note the title of the article:

Summer Science Camp Brings Former NASA Astronaut and Program
Founder to U.Va.

The number 500,000 isn't reserved just for STEMS. I see a pattern of it being
used by any profession affected by H-1B. Check this one out:

http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2008/03/28/Patients_should_prepare_for_fewer_nurses/UPI-15601206739860/

Patients should brace for a severe shortage of nurses, which could
reach 500,000 by 2025, U.S. health researchers said.

At least that warning of a shortage of nurses wasn't a straight copy and paste
-- they changed the date from 2010 to 2025. LOL!

Rachel Konrad writes some hideous articles about H-1B. In 2004 she wrote that
we have a shortage of poll workers. Can you guess the shortage number of poll
workers we need before you read this quote?

http://lmtonline.com/news/archive/110104/pagea11.pdf

A shortage of at least 500,000 poll workers nationwide
means many voters could face long lines, cranky
volunteers, polling places that don t open or close on
schedule and the chance that results won t be known
until long after the polls are closed.

Folks, I think I could write an entire book on how many job categories
throughout the world have shortages of 500,000 people, but this newsletter is
already getting too long. I couldn't resist one last example since we often
hear so much about H-1B school teachers. I'll include the title which is adds
to the absurdity of it all.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?Site=TO&Date=20020414&Category=ART16&ArtNo=104130056&Ref=AR

Careers dominated by women see shortages
New approaches needed to finding nurses, librarians,
teachers

Various estimates show a shortage of 500,000 to 2.2 million
teachers over the next decade. The shortage is especially
acute in urban schools and in certain fields, such as math,
science, special education and bilingual education.

OK, I think I got this thing figured out now.

It appears that many writers like Geoff Epstein (see below) merely copy and
paste that 500,000 number from previous articles so the myth continues to
propagate. He probably assumed that NASA and NASSCOM are the same thing, which
might explain why he thought the number was made up by the government. His
worst mistake was to copy text without checking to see if a study was really
done. Considering Epstein is involved in educating our kids you would think
that he would take a more academic approach to his research, but NO! Not even
our deteriorating economy with mass layoffs from high-tech companies was
enough to cause him a moment of doubt that 500,000 STEM jobs are waiting to be
filled.

Epstein's op-ed will probably inspire a new round of copy cats that claim that
the U.S. has a shortage of 500,000 stems. It's just a matter of time before we
start seeing them in more newspapers.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.wickedlocal.com/newton/news/lifestyle/columnists/x541355252

Epstein: Getting STEM into the Newton conversation By Guest Column / Geoff
Epstein Tue Nov 18, 2008, 11:32 AM EST

Newton - STEM is a priority in national conversations. STEM is a priority in
state conversations. But STEM is having trouble getting airtime in Newton s
local government conversations.

STEM stands for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics and embraces
the disciplines of architecture, engineering, computers, mathematics, life
sciences, physical sciences, social science, health care and technical skills.

You will hear it discussed by Newton parents, many of whom are STEM
professionals. But you won t find STEM on the School Committee agenda or in
the Newton Public Schools system-wide goals and it s unlikely to make the list
of FY10 NPS spending priorities.

STEM is vital to our way of life. It s the foundation of our economic
leadership and our national defense. If we are strong in STEM, we protect our
future and the future of our children.

From a national perspective, STEM is a priority because:

"The U.S. will have a shortage of more than 500,000 engineers, scientists and
other technically trained workers by 2010." (Congressional Task Force Study,
2006)

"in the next 18 months, 27 percent of the engineering workforce will be

eligible for retirement." ("Double Decline Forecast for U.S. Engineers,"
Defense News, 2007)

"Jobs requiring math are increasing 4x faster than overall job growth"
(Program for International Student Assessment test, 2004)

From a Massachusetts perspective, STEM is a priority because:

7 STEM jobs currently make up one-third of the state s managerial,
professional and technical workforce.

7 Of the 30 occupations expected to grow the fastest in Massachusetts over the
next decade, 20 are STEM occupations.

7 Massachusetts has fallen behind in producing students who choose STEM
careers, ranking second to last out of 10 innovation economy competitor states
(North Carolina, Illinois, Minnesota, Virginia, California, Pennsylvania, New
Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut).

To address the shortfall, Massachusetts has developed goals and a statewide
action plan to increase the number of students who participate in programs
that support careers in STEM. The goals include increasing the number of
qualified STEM teachers in the commonwealth and improving the STEM educational
offerings available in public and private schools.
(www.massachusetts.edu/umassstem)

In secondary education, STEM performance is measured by the percentage of
students taking the SAT who report that they are considering a STEM career.
Nationwide, the average is 26 percent. For Massachusetts, the average is
20.5 percent, so Massachusetts is currently aiming to match the national
average of 26 percent.

So with all of this national and state concern, how are we doing in Newton?

7 Only 15 percent of Newton SAT test takers report they are considering a STEM
career, significantly below the state average of 20 percent and far below the
state target of 26 percent,

7 Newton has no STEM action plan, unlike other school systems such as
Brookline (www.bhs21stcenturyfund.org/engineering-by-design)
(www.wickedlocal.com/brookline/archive/x1086970373)

7 Mathematics education in Newton is perceived by many parents as inadequate,
with hundreds of NPS students receiving private tutoring for both challenge
and remediation.

7 With current trends, a girl entering Newton Public Schools has almost zero
probability of becoming an engineer.

Based on this information, it seems entirely reasonable that we should have
some STEM concern in Newton.

On the plus side, we have a new STEM initiative: our rookie Newton FIRST high
school robotics team, championed by a local parent, supported by local STEM
employers, partially funded by a $12,000 stipend investment from the NPS
budget and enabled by enthusiastic teachers. A few percent of the high school
student population will benefit enormously.

But when looking at the big picture, one has to ask: "Why is Newton not
responding much more comprehensively to the national and state STEM calls to
action?"

The answer seems to be that we are suffering from local official "STEM
resistance." This manifests itself in arguments such as: we don t want to
"channel" our students into STEM careers; we already offer many STEM classes;
our high school MCAS and SAT scores are high, demonstrating our STEM
excellence; the state 15 percent number for Newton is not sound.

But these arguments don t ring true.
We are falling short in our mission to "inspire all students to achieve their
full potential."

We are not exposing our children in full measure to science, mathematics,
engineering and technology. We are not capitalizing on opportunities for
students to develop their technique and creativity in the solution of real
world problems that prepare them for a future that offers an increasing and
critical demand for skilled problem solvers.

So what should we do?
We should embrace STEM initiatives and the commonwealth s plans, enlist the
full support of our local STEM employers and our many parents and community
members who work in STEM careers and build a program which will provide all of
our children the opportunity to become inspired and achieve their full
potential.

One small sign of progress would be to find the word STEM mentioned somewhere
in the upcoming NPS FY10 Budget Guidelines.

Geoff Epstein is the School Committee member from Ward 1. Margaret Albright
and Dan Proskauer co-authored this column with Epstein.

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